Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Lets talk about polls...

I keep hearing that the pollsters and the pundits got it all wrong. They got it all wrong, they got it all wrong.

So I guess, lets look at what happened yesterday. The Exit Polls (ironic) tell some of the story, the amount of support Hillary received from women voters is undeniable. Chris Matthews from MSNBC's Hardball mentioned today on Morning Joe that he believed the people being polled the past few days just lied about it. He mentioned white voters not wanting to accept publicly that they wouldn't vote for Obama.

A dangerous statement, and one that I hope Obama stays as far away from as possible.

Now, there might be a certain truth to what Chris said, but I think it actually goes beyond that. With the Economy being the main issue concerning NH voters, I believe the NH people simply went with the candidate that they felt offered the most stability. The question of change took a second seat to the issues that people feel affect us today.

Obama's message certainly resonates with young people, it resonates at a level that simply makes you believe. But I can't deny the comfort and security that Hillary offers. Is that image of stability that could end up giving her the Democratic nomination.

In addition I think these results send one more message. The race is not over. People want to see debates, they want to see what the candidates have to offer. No candidate is going to get a free pass to the White House, and they're going to have to earn their place in the general election. This is a good thing.

So, were the polls wrong? I don't think so. At least, not in the way most people would think. I think they speak to the fact people want change. They want to believe. But, they don't like being told what to think or how they'll vote. And, they proved this with their voting.

Hopefully as we go forward with this process the candidates can stick to something Obama mentioned in the NH debate. They can disagree, without being disagreeable.

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